Live Market Preview: April 11 Video Auction | Episode 5
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Live Market Preview: April 11 Video Auction | Episode 5

welcome to We Live It the Live A podcast

your source for livestock market

insights management strategies and real

conversations with those who don't just

work in the cattle industry they live it

here are your hosts Ty D Cordova and

Casey

Mabry welcome welcome uh ladies and

gentlemen in social media world we are

back again once again with the We Live

It podcast with Live A and Blue Reef

Marketing um want to welcome everybody

to uh Cattle Raisers Association Fort

Worth Texas at the Convention Center

glad you all join us we welcome

everybody that's here um what's your

booth number you don't know uh we're

right here at about 1500 1,500 on the

Blue Reef marketing booth and booth

number 300 for the live a and we will

have a live sale today this afternoon

starting at 1:30 on RFDTV um at booth

300 uh we have approximately 16,000 head

of cattle to sell today if you're

wondering why I'm holding this mic

because it keeps trying to get close to

me Casey I didn't get a beard trimmed

this morning like I needed to um but we

also got some other exciting things

going on on live-ag.com

uh we have three purebred our four

purebred sales going today we have

Ingram Angus starts at 12 central i have

W4 that's in Morgan Texas starts at

12:30 central we have Carter Charlay

it's at 1 Mountain time in Hillrose

Colorado and then tonight we have a pig

auction um down there in or up there in

Kansas the Pinnacle uh pig sale so tune

in to those on live-ag.com at the

Purebred deal uh on the Purebred site so

and it will uh take you right where you

need to do right where you need to be

also want to touch base on some of our

summer we've released our summer

schedule we have uh four four auctions

for this summer i can't believe it's

already talking about summertime already

i'm telling you it's come fast isn't it

so the first one will be uh June 26th in

Ship Shawana Indiana which first time

I've ever been to Indiana indiana so but

Eric and Never been to Indiana before

never been there make sure you say Ship

Shuana right ship Shawana yeah Eric and

his crew up there at Ship Shana Auction

have been gracious to host us in their

hotels and their convention center been

thankful for him then we're going to go

on July 24th we're going to Boise Idaho

so that'll be a fun one for the Out West

crew uh then we're going to go back uh a

little bit east to Casper Wyoming April

14th so also coming up on June 24th we

go to the elite guys out there in

Alabama to Montgomery Alabama to

Cattleman's Association headquarters

there for Alabama Catelman's to have our

June 24th grass time special uh April

24th my bad April 24th grass time

special uh there with elite groups

they're going to have several several

loads of those good yearlings coming off

of Ryrass out that way they I think

they're going to have 100 120 loads just

themselves on that deal uh coming off

their ry grass to deliver into April

first part of May so um with all of that

said let's kind of get into kind of what

we're doing here we we we're gracious

that Cattle Raisers has asked us to be

here today um and allowed us to be here

and and record live podcast and have our

auction here on site and uh it's a

little distracting for you and I i got

ADD real bad so like watching all the

lights and sounds and people and people

walking by and music and Shana screaming

at me you know and uh where where did

you say you found a beard trimmer yeah

over there in that back right corner

over there there's a I don't know

there's a guy back there doing a little

beard trim so uh we'll swing him over

there maybe we could do a live podcast

you getting your beard trim hey we got

to try that here in just a little while

cuz this mic keeps coming to me no

there's a lot of cool booths here and

there's a lot of different things i mean

so if you're going to come into the into

the uh trade show today I'm looking

there's this uh crumb art deal right

there across the deal and they've got

some really neat art so you can uh you

know blame that on uh get bringing your

wife in here and let her spend a little

bit of money there's some jewelry in the

back corner there's a guy with some

drone stuff right across the way yeah

they're crazy there's one right there

and then there's another big drone back

over in the other corner so I was hoping

that we might be able to hook up like a

some type of a harness or something and

then fly us around in that big drone

they've got pick me up i doubt it but

will they be be able to pick up Avery or

Katie they'd be able to get Katie katie

yeah yeah um so what's been going on

your way man here oh man we had kind of

finishing up show steer season we had an

awesome county fair last week uh Peyton

Modus she won the steer show um they uh

they had dedicated that deal to my dad

in memory of him so that was pretty

pretty cool for her to win that buck

emotal it was pretty emotional um so it

was it was an awesome week it was a

tiring week we started in Houston the

week before kind of got our teeth kicked

in down there and then we come back and

we ended on a high note um so kind of

got the barn cleaned out and got some

steers waiting to come in it but we just

ain't let them in it yet yeah y'all

haven't bought Have y'all bought them

yet we've got a few but no we haven't we

still need a few more probably i feel

like we've got dueling microphones i'm

telling you they're trying to see who

can get closest but So uh when do you

get all your stairs bought well we'll

have them bought them within the next 30

days

so what about you yeah so uh I mean

obviously with the Austin being done

that whole set of pigs our way is gone

um our county show is the first week of

June uh so we actually have a overlap

and so we've got animals that are coming

in uh and then this is the time period

where you're starting to accumulate

animals for uh state fair uh so our

girls want to show at the state fair

this year uh so we'll have some stuff uh

in the barn all summer long so um yeah

it's been fun i mean personally it's

been uh busy professionally these

markets have been wild uh so you guys

have been busy yourself too so yeah the

market's been pretty erratic so let's

kind of touch base on that what do we

what are we looking here kind of what is

the feedback you're hearing in in your

part of the world and and in and that

side of the things kind of what are you

seeing there and what's causing it and

let's talk a little bit about maybe the

tariff deal and then and everybody's

outlook has been different yeah I would

tell you Ty that what we need to make

sure of and if you guys are listening

out there what you need to make sure of

is uh there's a couple of things one

don't really I mean there's all kinds of

uncertainty going on we've got a huge

administration change uh this is

probably the biggest policy and really

mindset of a country change uh that

we've seen in quite some time and so all

of us would probably agree with a lot of

the fundamental things uh that we're

seeing our president do uh you know as

far as immigration goes as far as you

know different spending policies go but

it's really going to throw a ripple

across all markets um so I think we're

getting uh you know really I'd say in

girrations around outside market factors

um this needs to be a riskoff scenario

for everybody that doesn't mean when I

say risk off that we need to quit buying

cattle or we need to quit functioning

our businesses what I'm telling you is

is don't keep gambling on cattle so if

you're buying cattle protect them um

don't protect them with just you know do

it in a form that allows for the market

volatility to be your friend all right

um so whether that's LRP whether that's

options something there do not this is

the thing I've really tried to drive

home with a lot of our guys is all the

uncertainty because let's think about it

right here all right so uh right after

the first of the year Trump comes out

and says "We're going to start tariffing

people." So that was the first sign of a

tra trade war we have to remember back

in 2020 uh whenever we were ending uh

Trump's presidency and right before co a

lot of the uncertainty and really the

thing that wrecked the grain market at

that point was trade war with China

right so this is four years later 5

years later uh we're back in a trade war

now it's not just a trade war with China

it's a trade war with the whole globe

right um we're creating an environment

that creates a lot of uncertainty um and

so what we need to make sure of is just

because there's something that's going

on in our cattle market tight supplies

good demand things like that all of that

could change very rapidly right because

what we're doing uh in my mind is we're

really doing a lot to destroy demand

from a global standpoint there might be

some things that we're doing from a

supply standpoint like limiting the

amount of imports that of beef that

could come in from other countries like

Australia but we're doing some

destruction to demand outside of our

country so um we got to just make sure

that all of those moving parts that we

don't try to jump in front of a train uh

that's going somewhere right so allow

for the market to move down allow for

the market to move up remain protected

and keep yourself in business yeah it's

pretty good strategy kind of like what

we talked about with John a couple weeks

ago on all those just have a plan

develop a plan and stick with the plan

yeah i mean that's kind of especially

with these swings we're seeing now this

thing could be Well I got I mean I was

telling that to a customer of mine this

morning i mean I've kind of gotten

exhausted with the market and my job is

to not get exhausted with the market

right i mean so let's talk about even

just this week so Trump comes out uh so

we had a lot of uncertainty with uh with

what was going on last week the weekend

or so the the the equity markets fall

apart going into Friday you know they

had to digest that all weekend long we

open up Monday morning and obviously the

Chinese markets trade while we're

sleeping uh China comes in and increases

the amount of tariffs that they're going

to impose on the US so that kind of sent

our markets into a freef fall on Monday

right so uh we saw the the the Dow and

the S&P down extremely hard you know

even five six 7% during those days and

then we saw the next day that dropped

even lower on Tuesday and then what was

interesting about that is there was a

leak if you watch the market in day like

I do I mean sometimes if you're you're

not watching it every day then that's

probably a better thing uh but like the

other day like Tuesday I think it was uh

the market the Dow was down like call it

2,000 points all right uh all of a

sudden I look over at my screen live

cattle were down three bucks feeder

cattle were like down 5 six bucks the

Dow was down 2,000 i look up in like 5

minutes the Dow's back to even going

into the green live cattle are up a buck

feeder cattle up two to three

bucks within the next 5 minutes they're

all back down three to four bucks again

and what was going on is if you go back

and read the news uh there was a fake

news quote unquote fake news that came

out that said "Hey we're going to

um we're going to uh they were going to

kick the car terrorist down the road for

90 days right?" So then that's that that

shot the market up the White House comes

out and goes "No that's fake news that's

not actually happening." Shot the market

back down and then what's he do like two

days later kick the cars down the road

the market rallies biggest rally in the

S&P and the Dow in history 3,000 points

china comes in and poses more tariffs

the market's back down yesterday so my

point is is I don't know if tariffs are

bullish i don't know if tariffs are

bearish i don't know if all these things

are you know what they'll do what I

don't know means is uncertainty uh what

I don't know means is I wouldn't just

get out there and start gambling on

cattle but again like I said we got to

keep buying our cattle we got to keep

running our business keep going got to

keep going you know and you talk to you

talk to one set of people and they're

it's doom and gloom you talk to the next

set of people and they're you know

remember the the shortage remember the

the numbers are down and and we're

seeing that too and this cash market

staying pretty stout um seen a buddy of

mine sent a deal from uh I think it was

Josh's sail barn yesterday in El Dredo

uh some six weightight spring uh

bumping over four bucks 402 or three

weighing 604 i mean so yeah yeah and

then the cash live cattle market the the

cash market is phenomenal it's better

than what the futures market is and so I

mean that's what we got to remember um

and you're I haven't heard the comments

of the futures market's broken lately

but when you hear that that's whenever

we're probably hitting the bottom from a

futures market standpoint so um we got

to remember that we got to remember that

we trade a cash market we use a

derivative to offset risk but the also

deal is is we also use that derivative

futures market um to really set prices

for most part right because that's what

everybody's hedging against but um I

think what we got to do is it instead of

saying over and over again these markets

are choppy these markets are volatile uh

we got to just continue to try to

embrace it in some way and so having

somebody that can help you and I'm not

this is not a sales pitch on Blue Reef

at all find the person you're

comfortable with if that's not us uh go

find somebody else you're comfortable

with but use somebody that can advise

them um on what the products do how to

do it how to offset risk um and and and

and be smart that's that's that's it at

the end of the day is let's just be

smart yeah let's be smart so we can

continue to do it year after year after

year so well is got anything else we

need to go over

um I know what that means but I didn't

expect it right there so it kind of

confused me but anything else we need to

kind of talk about go over um anything

you want to touch on before we wrap this

thing up uh anything going on this week

that you want to kind of share with

folks that come by here and visit and No

I mean just go in stop by this deal i

mean there's a lot of stuff at Cattle

Raisers Convention and I mean honestly

get off the ranch get out of the feed

yard uh come in here and meet some of

these people i'm looking across there

and there's a lot of different bankers

you know you and I had John on here um a

couple of weeks ago uh we've got you

know uh National Finance that's right

here next to our booth we've been talk

there's been lots of lending discussions

there's been lots of different things uh

out there for uh I mean there's a lot of

value in this place so I mean if you're

a Cattle Raisers member I think you can

come into this trade show free is that

right if you're a Cattle Raisers member

I think you can come into the trade show

it's relatively inexpensive i mean

there's all kinds of different

technology lots of different things that

you can come in here you could come in

here and uh probably uh watch Tai uh get

up here and sell some cattle here pretty

quick uh because I think Hey is that the

first This is another thing is that the

first time we've ever had an auction at

one of these i think it's the first time

we've ever had auction in the cattle

razors texas cattle razor i'm I'm almost

positive it's the first time we've ever

had a live auction here with cattle yeah

I think that's going to be slick i mean

that you can come in here inside of one

of these booths 35x40 space set up an au

auction block i wish it was that big is

it bigger than that 10 by 40 oh 10x4

tight but you know we're going to make

it work yeah it'll look it'll be like

one of these auctions where they cram

everybody in it looks like there's a lot

of activity but there's uh I mean come

up here and just meet some people and uh

let your wife buy some art from that art

guy over there there's lots of

networking here yeah lots and lots of

people to meet lots of people to go

around pick their brain on educational

stuff like you said all the bankers are

here i mean and all them guys that that

do the heavy financing are here then you

got these guys that spray things with

drones and just all kinds of different

stuff to come here learn about hey and

then bring your kids here i mean because

we've got to and this is going to sound

like too long range and too cheesy but

uh we've got to embrace the next

generation uh in this industry we got to

make sure that we continue to bring

people into it uh and excite them about

it and then uh you got yours with you

yeah I got one of them over here

neighbor's here yeah she's over there

she looks like she's pretty bored right

now might get her up here and give her a

little gear see if she wants to give a

speech yeah yeah but uh yeah bring your

kids here come in here and get you some

uh some uh sorting paddles and uh and

you can get uh all kinds of different

things up here for sure well once again

thanks for joining us with the We Live

It podcast don't forget to hit subscribe

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important thing very very important to

trust your trucking so but uh thank you

Casey for this we have some pretty

awesome guests that we're going to we're

going to record tomorrow and the next

day or tomorrow for sure and air next

week so we kind of got uh some of the

cattle raisers people going to join us

some of the presidents and past

presidents and directors going to join

us tomorrow to to kind of go over things

and get get their outlook on things so

thank everybody and once again we live

it and God bless